DFS K-Prop Edge Engine · MLB · Wed May 20, 2026

K-Prop Dashboard

LIVE · V3.2 Vegas-prior

Matchups by Game

All games tomorrow with projected K's, splits, and lean per pitcher. Filter chips below.

Probability Heatmap

P(over) at every standard line for every pitcher — variance-corrected (Poisson SD ×1.25).

Edge Calculator

Drill into any pitcher × line × odds. Variance-corrected probabilities; 30/70 model/book de-vig blend on edges.

Pitcher

Line

Over Odds

Under Odds

Slate Visuals

Projection ranking and pitcher K% vs opp K% scatter.

Projected Ks

Color = projected lean direction.

Pitcher K% vs Opp K% vs Hand

Top-right = strongest matchups.

Model Backtest — 681 starts

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Hit Rate · O/U 5.5

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MAE

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Typical projection error per start

Bias

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Correlation

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Predicted vs Actual Ks

Diagonal = perfect calibration.

Hit Rate by Prop Line

Dashed = -110 break-even (52.4%).

Calibration by Bucket

Equal heights = well-calibrated.

Verdict

Model Works

69.8% hit rate at O/U 5.5.

Blind-betting every model lean at −110 returns positive ROI across standard lines.

Caveat

Variance is real

R² = 0.276.

Model captures ~quarter of single-game variance. Edge shows up over volume.

V3.2 Calibration

Vegas-prior on λ

30% model / 70% book-implied projection.

Snell shifted 4.8 → 6.5 K (model was too low). Wacha 5.4 → 4.5 (model too high).